NFL Picks

This is the first time the NFL has ventured to Madrid, and they’re giving the Spanish crowds a solid matchup — if Tua Tagovailoa can stay healthy enough to see Week 11. The dark cloud hovering over this one is the grass surface inside Santiago Bernabeu Stadium. That sod was replaced four times during Real Madrid’s most recent La Liga campaign, which was marred by injuries. Many are pointing to the integrity of the hybrid surface as the reason for all those ailments. A shitty field could slow down both the Washington Commanders and Miami Dolphins offenses. I’ll go Under 49.5 points.

The Bears have bullied some bad defensive teams, knocking off the likes of the Giants, Bengals, Ravens, Saints, Commanders, Raiders and Cowboys. Those clubs all sit near the bottom of the NFL in many advanced (and not so advanced) stats. Minnesota lost 27-19 to Baltimore on Sunday but didn’t play poorly, at least not on defense. The Vikings limited Lamar & Co. to just 4.9 yards per play and 2 for 5 in the red zone. However, 13 penalties (101 yards against) on both sides of the ball and three turnovers made things look a lot worse than it was. Chicago QB Caleb Williams faces a blitz-happy Minnesota stop unit that runs a zone base behind that chaos. The second-year QB struggles under duress (and runs around like his ass is on fire) and has significant issues passing against zone schemes. He went 21-of-35 passing for 210 yards and one TD in Week 1.

The Texans are fresh off a comeback win against the Jags where they had Davis Mills under center. Franchise QB C.J. Stroud will likely return this week along with RT Tytus Howard who both missed last week with concussions. They have the highest-rated defense in the league in terms of ppg allowed (16.7), EPA/play, and DVOA. They'll shut down a Tennessee offense that is dead-last in scoring (14.4 ppg) and EPA. The Titans are 1-8 with an average scoring margin of -14.1 ppg. They lost 26-0 when these teams clashed in September and they've gone just 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games at home. Grab this number before it moves past that key number of 7.

The Panthers have faced the 30th easiest schedule per PFF through 10 weeks, and the Falcons have faced the 11th hardest. I’m expecting Atlanta to show up at Mercedes-Benz Stadium and win this NFC South showdown after tough losses the past two weeks, while Carolina has only scored 23 points and ranks 25th in EPA per play across its past two games. The Falcons return to the wins column and cover the number Sunday.

The Pittsburgh offense looked lost in Week 10, with Aaron Rodgers passing for just 161 yards and two interceptions against the Bolts. After a steady start through the first six weeks, this Steelers offense has tumbled down the advanced metrics the past four outings. This passing attack is far from explosive. Pittsburgh has posted only 21 completions of 20-plus yards with Rodgers averaging a league-low 3.7 air yards per completion for qualified QBs. If the Steelers are going to stop the bleeding, it will need the defense to step up at home. Pittsburgh’s performance on Sunday night wasn’t horrible, checking the Chargers to 4.6 yards per play, 18 first downs and sacking Justin Herbert four times. The extended forecast for Acrisure Stadium sees rains on Sunday with wind gusts as high as 21 mph. That could keep scoring down and make a mess of the questionable grass surface in the Steel City as well.

The Rams have shifted into cruise control and covered the number in each of their four consecutive wins. Los Angeles quarterback Matthew Stafford has also paced the league in adjusted EPA per play and success rate while throwing four 7.3 yards per attempt and a 67.7 completion percentage during the winning streak. He’s thrown 14 touchdowns without an interception, too. Obviously, Seattle QB Sam Darnold has also been a statistical darling, but I’m anticipating the Los Angeles defense to do just enough to keep him off balance Sunday. So, with this spread below the key number of 3, I’m happy to take the home team – especially with Stafford playing at an elite level.

The Rams are rolling and can pull away from the NFC West pack with a win at home in Week 11. Los Angeles has to tame this Seattle defense, but has done a great job keeping QB Matt Stafford clean and Sean McVay’s play-action offense will keep the Seahawks guessing. As for the Seattle offense, this is a significant step up in opposition on both sides of the ball. Los Angeles’ zone-centric schemes will limit the Seahawks’ downfield looks and force Sam Darnold into a grinder of a game against a defense ranked among the best in third down defense and red-zone stands. 

The Chiefs are fresh off a bye but Denver will also be well-rested after playing on TNF last week. It hasn't always been pretty for the Broncos but they've been winning, going 8-2 this season while riding a seven-game win streak. Their only two losses came on last-second field goals to the Colts and Chargers. Both of those games came on the road and they have a significant home-field advantage playing at elevation. With their elite defense, I would take them at more than a FG in Denver against anybody in the league — including the Chiefs who are 1-3 SU and ATS on the road.

The Ravens have their sights on top spot in the AFC North, and Baltimore has won three straight while averaging 28.3 points per game and allowing just 13.6 per. Cleveland doesn’t check out as a formidable foe, either. The Brownies are 2-7, and quarterback Dillon Gabriel has thrown for a pedestrian 5.0 yards per attempt and 58.2 completion percentage while ranking last in EPA+COPE composite since taking over in Week 5. Ravens roll in Week 11.

Although the Dallas Cowboys' defense will be more stable under new defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus, it's hard to overlook a unit that was gashed on the ground and allowed a bottom-five mark in yards per play last season. Patrick Mahomes will torch them on the fast track at Jerry World, boasting a deep arsenal that includes a now-healthy Rashee Rice. With George Pickens joining CeeDee Lamb to bolster the Cowboys’ receiving corps, Dak Prescott should also be able to air it out — even if much of the damage comes in classic garbage-time mop-up duty at AT&T Stadium. The Kansas City Chiefs' defense lost key veterans in the secondary, including corner Charvarius Ward and safety Justin Reid. While their younger replacements may eventually settle into Steve Spagnuolo's system, it could take some time for them to get fully up to speed.

The Cincinnati Bengals have lost their last four games against the Baltimore Ravens and are just 4-6 ATS in their last 10 head-to-head matchups with their AFC North rivals. With Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry spearheading a loaded offense, Baltimore's defense should also see a boost following the draft selections of safety Malaki Starks and edge rusher Mike Green. Back the Ravens to cover at home, where they went 5-3-1 ATS last season.

The Bears will have a new HC in Ben Johnson, and many people hold him in high regard for his ability to run an offense. He'll have a full complement of weapons to work with, including Caleb Williams, DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, and Cole Kmet. And on defense, they should be stout in the trenches and on the outside. The Eagles, fresh off their Super Bowl victory, could be in for a letdown this year, and while this November clash is three months into the season, things could snowball if the team isn't 100% focused from Week 1. 

The Washington Commanders bolstered their offense by adding Pro Bowl tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Deebo Samuel, while also re-signing reliable safety valve Zach Ertz. Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys were torched both on the ground and through the air in 2024, and they did little to address those issues through free agency or the draft. Expect the Commanders to roll and cover the spread at home. Dallas finished just 7-10 against the spread in 2024, while Washington rewarded bettors with a 10-6 ATS record.

Although the Detroit Lions lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to Chicago, it was the defense — not the offense — that ultimately led to their playoff downfall last season. The return of star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson will be especially important, and I expect Detroit’s front four to make life tough for J.J. McCarthy on Christmas Day. Even against the Minnesota Vikings’ elite defense, Jared Goff had no trouble moving the ball last season, with the Lions putting up 30+ points in both matchups. Back Detroit to cover and secure the road win at U.S. Bank Stadium.