College Football Picks

Cold, windy weather plays right into Akron’s style. Look for a heavy dose of running back Jordan Gant, a heavily motivated defense, and just enough of quarterback Ben Finley’s arm to cover the spread. 

The Ohio defense, which allows 24.2 points per game (sixth in the MAC), has also tightened up, down to 20.5 per contest over the last four. Meanwhile, Western Michigan has scored 24 points or fewer in four of six, but its defense is ranked second in the MAC, surrendering just 19 points per game.

During their fun run, the Broncos have been even stingier, dropping that total to just 12.8 points per contest, which includes a shutout.

With clear skies and just a light breeze, both quarterbacks should have enough control to take calculated shots downfield. 

Toledo’s Tucker Gleason is always capable of flipping a drive into a quick touchdown, while dual-threat quarterback DeQuan Finn and Miami (OH) have scored at least 20 points in six straight games. 

Expect both teams to trade scores in a clean, well-paced, and high-scoring game. 

Oregon has cashed the Under in three consecutive home games and now faces a slow and ineffective Minnesota offense, so I'm expecting more of the same.

Can someone say strap game? Oregon comes off a last-second, full-effort win at Iowa for a short week game against a Minnesota team fresh off a bye week.

In the simplest terms, Wisconsin is ripe for a letdown moment, no matter how underwhelming beating Washington would be for most teams. In the more dooming terms, Indiana enjoys one of the best passing offenses in the country, and it should run up the score on the Badgers' defense. As Wisconsin struggles to score in any way, running up the score could become laughable.

West Virginia's offense has been moribund for much of the season, in no small part due to injuries. Arizona State's offense has not been an asset in well more than a month, now looking worse without QB Sam Leavitt. Yet both of these are quality defenses. The Big 12 of lore should cringe at this Big Ten West-quality game on Saturday.

The Under has hit in seven of the nine games the Sooners have played this season. 

Alabama has won and covered the spread in each of their five home games this season.

Virginia needs quarterback Chandler Morris, but it seems distinctly possible he may miss this week due to injury. If so, then Duke should be favored by nearly double digits, largely as credit to the Blue Devils' defense. Taking this -6.5 on Sunday is an attempt at getting ahead of that possible line move, while knowing even with Morris, Duke will have homefield advantage and the better defense in this massive ACC tilt.

With how both of these teams are able to hit explosive pass plays, I’m leaning Over. Georgia ranks in the Top 30 in explosive pass rate, 14th in pressure rate allowed, and fifth in yards after catch. 

Texas defends the run well, but Georgia can throw the ball enough to put up points. Just look at Vanderbilt and Mississippi State, who routinely connected on big pass plays downfield.

And as good as Georgia’s defense has been, Ole Miss showed you can find success against the Dawgs without running the ball. The Rebels repeatedly hit on big throws downfield as they scored 35 points.

While I don’t think this game will come close to the 78 points those teams combined for, I think we have a total that has dipped a bit too low. 

Arch Manning looks like a good quarterback again, and he's facing a Georgia defense that doesn't get after the quarterback as much as you'd think. The Bulldogs rank 114th in pressure rate and are allowing too many yards after the catch.

That's great news for Ryan Wingo, who has been hitting big plays of late and can go the distance anytime he touches the ball. He's part of a receiving corps that should put up numbers against a Georgia defense ranked 100th in EPA/pass and 74th in dropback success rate. 

Meanwhile, the Texas defense will cause some issues for a Georgia offense that relies on running the ball to keep third downs managable. 

I think Georgia is favored by too much here, and I'll take the Longhorns as long as I'm getting more than four points.